Michael Rasmussen's solo breakaway in the Alps on Stage 8 from Le Grand-Bornand to Tignes was a brilliant show of force. He conquered three big climbs, garnered 60 King of the Mountains points and won the stage. More interesting, Rasmussen also took over both the King of the Mountains competition and the General Classification. In his four Tours, this is the first time Rasmussen has worn the yellow jersey. Rasmussen has several days to decide whether he wants to go for his fourth win as King of the Mountains or if he wants to wear the yellow jersey into Paris. If he does not state his intentions, the peloton will decide for him.
While Rasmussen is a great climber, he is not the best climber in the peloton, and he is terrible (relatively speaking) in the Time Trial. Fans will remember Rasmussen's time trial in the penultimate stage of 2005 when he fell off the bike several times losing his second place position on the podium.
Rasmussen's hold on the 2007 General Classification is tenuous at best. Clearly, none of the other GC contenders are going to let him go on any more of the mountain stages. And, he is sure to lose minutes in next Saturday's 54km time trial on Stage 13.
Presently, Rasmussen leads two other Pretenders Linus Gerdemann (43 seconds) and Iban Mayo (2:43). Neither of these guys has what it takes to win the Tour de France. Gerdemann is too inexperienced and Mayo cannot time trial, nor is he consistent when it comes to the climbs. A closer look at the general classification shows the real race for the yellow jersey. Remove the three pretenders at the top (Rasumussen, Gerdemann and Mayo), and take a look at this modified GC:
4---> 1 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne
5 ---> 2 Andrey Kashechkin (Kaz) Astana 0.01
6 ---> 3 Cadel Evans (Aus) Predictor - Lotto 0.02
7 ---> 4 Christophe Moreau (Fra) AG2r Prévoyance 0.15
8 ---> 5 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 0.19
9 ---> 6 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC 0.23
10 ---> 7 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 0.28
11 ---> 8 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC 0.44
12 ---> 9 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0.55
13 ---> 10 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 1.02
14 ---> 11 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 1.03
15 ---> 12 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 1.09
16 ---> 13 Manuel Beltran Martinez (Spa) Liquigas 1.28
22 ---> 19 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana 2.32
23 ---> 20 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Caisse d'Epargne 3.08
This is the real GC competition shaping up, and you can bet this list and times are what the team directors are evaluating now. Of these contenders, you have to ask who can both time trial well and climb well? More importantly, who can climb well in the Pyrennes? HINT: You can pretty much count out Moureau. My picks for the top 5 are bolded above. (I know, I chose 7 for the top 5).
What do you think?